Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.197628 2.317939 2.447618 2.598994 2.772474 2.967162 3.205309
2025-08-10 2.035650 2.179419 2.339818 2.534690 2.768966 3.047161 3.412017
2025-08-17 1.951953 2.111704 2.294343 2.522855 2.807841 3.162031 3.655288
2025-08-24 1.889786 2.060266 2.258774 2.512815 2.839009 3.259990 3.877869
2025-08-31 1.840848 2.019134 2.229775 2.504336 2.865543 3.347118 4.088354
2025-09-07 1.814271 2.001654 2.226195 2.524236 2.926101 3.480422 4.379361
2025-09-14 1.749762 1.934261 2.156402 2.453083 2.856537 3.419784 4.350830
2025-09-21 1.720444 1.908375 2.136547 2.444639 2.870054 3.477126 4.517154
2025-09-28 1.681839 1.869136 2.097611 2.408036 2.840444 3.465444 4.559407
2025-10-05 1.683484 1.879487 2.121272 2.454730 2.929257 3.637363 4.947469
2025-10-12 1.694476 1.901220 2.159430 2.521569 3.049713 3.868223 5.492128
2025-10-19 1.676100 1.884574 2.146318 2.516074 3.061148 3.920370 5.682112
2025-10-26 1.661878 1.873532 2.141033 2.522400 3.092388 4.011062 5.980715
2025-11-02 1.622306 1.828682 2.089428 2.460998 3.015962 3.909425 5.820653
2025-11-09 1.604200 1.810976 2.073210 2.448857 3.014380 3.936746 5.963710
2025-11-16 1.588082 1.795264 2.058928 2.438468 3.014129 3.964698 6.109285
2025-11-23 1.573661 1.781259 2.046313 2.429605 3.015069 3.993308 6.257923
2025-11-30 1.570524 1.781566 2.052497 2.447337 3.057749 4.098796 6.622919
2025-12-07 1.535788 1.739908 2.001097 2.379976 2.961496 3.941100 6.250432
2025-12-14 1.524251 1.728413 1.990257 2.371329 2.959192 3.958092 6.359603
2025-12-21 1.503365 1.704311 1.961873 2.336383 2.913332 3.891396 6.230278
2025-12-28 1.512439 1.719471 1.986747 2.379386 2.994070 4.065508 6.800723
2026-01-04 1.528108 1.743387 2.023803 2.441079 3.107894 4.313579 7.690643